Journal:⠀Current Problems of Europe, 2025, Vol. 4, pp. 154-173
URL: https://upe-journal.ru/article.php?id=2847
DOI: 10.31249/ape/2025.04.09.
Against the backdrop of the rapidly changing geopolitical situation in the Sahel, attention should be paid not only to the reconfiguration of the balance of power, but also to the formation of a regional security complex whose core is the Alliance of Sahel States (AES — Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso).
This study examines the model and outlines the geographical boundaries of the security complex in the Sahel, while also identifying shifts in the balance of power among regional and external actors. The crisis of the “Françafrique” system, which emerged as a result of coups d’état amid rising anti-French sentiment in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso in 2020–2023, has forced the former colonial power to adapt its strategy in its zone of “privileged influence” to new realities. However, it would be premature to speak of France’s complete “withdrawal” from the region.
In the absence of its former range of levers of influence in the Sahel, including military presence and economic assistance programmes, France still retains the ability to exert indirect influence on regional processes, including through trilateral diplomacy. The study forecasts the most likely approach of French diplomacy within the “triangle” of relations involving France, Algeria and the AES countries. It may be assumed that Paris will proceed from a competitive strategy, using contradictions in relations between Algeria and Mali to contain the growing influence of non-Western actors in the Sahel, such as Russia.
